Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Why Marine Le Pen will be the next French President

Last summer a Frenchwoman told me that if there were a referendum in France on the EU, they would vote leave. I don’t know if a vote would actually go that way, but it is indicative of popular sentiment. A referendum on the constitution in Italy at the end of last year turned into a referendum on the EU, and the anti-vote won. In Finland, severe curbs are being placed on immigration. Austria has just banned the wearing of the veil in public.

Across Europe and the US, we are seeing a swing to the right politically, and a re-assertion of the nation state in the face of globalisation. The last time there was a Uranus-Pluto square – the early thirties – there was a Depression followed by a swing to the right across Europe, triggered by the economic difficulties. America avoided that political swing in the thirties, but not this time.

This new political mood has not yet taken form on mainland Europe, but that is simply because there have not been elections. As I wrote previously, the 2 big political events this year will be the French and German elections, and we can expect swings to the right, but not in the normal sense: it will not be business as usual, albeit with a conservative tinge. It will be something quite different, as we have already seen in the US and the UK.

A new era is being born. Uranus still has one more conjunction with Eris. This series of conjunctions describes the shocks to the system, people hardly able to believe what has happened, the deep dismay many of us have experienced: the inexorable progress of western democratic liberalism, 'the end of history', stopped in its tracks, reversed by a bunch of insular racists and rednecks. That's how it can seem. But civilisations rise and fall, values change.

And Marine Le Pen is likely to be the next President of France. She is leader of the National Front, a previously extreme right-wing party, led for a long time by her father, but whose positions and image she has softened (and this has included expelling her father from the party.) But it’s still pretty right-wing.

Marine Le Pen
She is economically protectionist, and wants France to leave the Eurozone, as well as the Schengen Area, which allows people to move freely between countries. She is opposed to the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon, the most recent step in the political integration of the EU. She sees 2017 as a year in which nation states will be reborn across Europe, a domino effect coming out of the Brexit and Trump votes.

She is to all intents and purposes a Frexiteer, and she is narrowly ahead in the polls.

So now for some astrology. I don’t think astrology on its own can make successful predictions: for example, there are plenty of people born at the same time as Marine Le Pen, they will have the same chart, but they will not be President because they are not politicians. So we have to combine astrology with available information.

To make a prediction of this sort I look at 3 things: does the politician have popular appeal; does their chart make strong connections with the national chart; and do they have major transits empowering their charts in the coming years?

There are 3 main candidates: the socialist Benoit Hamon, the centre-right Francois Fillon, and Marine Le Pen. I can't say much about charisma, popular appeal, because I'm not that clued up to French politics. But the other 2 factors I can say something about.

Benoit Hamon
I’m ruling out Hamon because his recent major transit (Pluto opp Asc) is finishing, and there is no new major transit for some years. Also, his chart only makes one strong connection with the French Chart: his Asc conjoins the French Moon. (Update: Since writing this, Emmanuel Macron's popularity has increased; I hadn't mentioned him because he fails on both astrological criteria, and that remains.)

Francois Fillon
Fillon likewise has just one strong connection with the French chart: his North Node is opposite the French Moon. As for transits, Pluto finished with his Angles a year or two ago, but has still to conjoin his Node. Also, he has Neptune conjoining his Sun over the next couple of years, and Saturn moving onto his Angles. So the transits are there, but I’m a bit suspicious of the major one, Neptune conjunct Sun. 

It could be the transit of a popular redeemer – Tony Blair was empowered by Neptune throughout his time as Labour leader – but I think you have to come from nowhere to achieve that. You can’t be a redeemer if you have a track record in power – and Fillon used to be Prime Minister – because then people know you, and being a redeemer is dependent on people not knowing you (like Obama, with his natal Sun square Naeptune), so they can project their hopes onto you. I think Neptune in Fillon’s case is therefore more likely to suggest him leaving politics. The current investigation into alleged improper payments to his wife, even though it may turn out to be a non-story, seems indicative of this.

Marine Le Pen
And then there is Marine Le Pen. Her Asc-Node-Saturn conjoins/opposes the French Sun-Node Asc (these are fairly wide stelliums, but together they add up to something very strong). And her MC-Mars in Cancer conjoins the French Moon-IC in Cancer. And then her Capricorn Moon conjoins the French MC.

So she has an extremely powerful connection with modern France (the chart I am using), far more so than the other candidates.

As for transits, over the next 3 years she has Pluto opposing her MC, and Saturn hard aspecting her Moon and Angles.

So I expect Marine Le Pen to be President, and to be very effective in bringing about change for the 1st few years of her Presidency. After that, her transits will dry up and she will become less effective. (When I say ‘effective’, I mean that she will achieve much of what she sets out to achieve: it does not suggest I either agree or disagree with what she does, that is not my job as an astrologer.)

One further argument in favour of Le Pen: in the next few years France will be coming out of a long period in which Pluto and Uranus will have hard aspected the country's Sun, Moon, Node and Angles. This is huge. Le Pen is the only candidate with the radiclaism to bring about the level of change that the outcome of this series of transits requires. France will be a very different country in 2 to 3 years time, or sooner, with a very different relationship to the EU.

Meanwhile, Theresa May has been clever in delaying the start of the Brexit negotiations (ie triggering article 50) until the end of March, a few weeks before the French elections. We are likely to see a French President who would like to see for France what the UK is claiming for itself, and that could change the whole process: it’s like all bets are off as to the outcome.

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

2017: The Year Europe Changed

Theresa May, the UK PM, has promised to initiate Brexit negotiations by the end of March. She’s not the usual sort of politician, in that she doesn’t say much, but when she does say something, she means it. We don’t have a birth time for her, but she has Saturn conjunct North Node, as well as square Moon and Venus, and sextile Mercury. 

She has a Saturnian personality: she is notoriously withheld, but wants to do a proper, detailed job. She has earned her position through being Home Secretary for 6 years, and popularity for her is secondary (Saturn square to Venus). So she has the right temperament for the job at hand, Brexit.

But subsequent to triggering article 50, we are likely to see a phoney Brexit for most of this year. For the UK, Brexit begins in earnest once Saturn goes direct in the autumn, leaving Sagittarius for good and entering Capricorn, where it will begin to hard aspect the UK Sun, Moon and Angles, all of which are in Cardinal signs.

This, of course, fits nicely with the waiting game we are likely to see until the French and German elections have been held, in the spring and autumn respectively. Until then, we will not really know who we are negotiating with, though there will continue to be posturing from both sides.

Europe is likely to see further shocks this year, as we experience the outcome of the Uranus-Pluto square, energised by the conjunction of Uranus to Eris. The dark underbelly of globalisation (those left without jobs and prospects as industry moves to cheaper countries, and as jobs become automated, and the problems caused by lack of sensible border controls) that Pluto has revealed, and that brought about Trump and Brexit, has yet to bring major political change to mainland Europe. 

This is because unlike the US and the UK, Europe has not had elections or referendums. Except Italy, which had a referendum on the constitution in December, that became a referendum on the EU and the Euro: the anti-vote won. That seems like a clear sign of the way things are going.

The Euro currency has an exact opposition between Mars and Eris (18.21 Libra/Aries), Mars ruling the 8th House of shared wealth. So Mars is a key player. Saturn at 26 Aries, at the start of the 8th, is also a major player. As Uranus completes his crossing of transiting Eris and moves on to natal Saturn this year, and as Pluto finishes with natal Mars/Eris, we are almost certain to see crises within the Eurozone, the 2 obvious contenders being Greece and Italy, both of whom have debt problems. It could easily result in one of them leaving the Eurozone.

The big events, however, are the French and German elections. Both countries (using their modern charts) are in the thick of Pluto or Neptune transits to major points: France has Pluto hard-aspecting her Asc, Node and Moon; Germany has Pluto hard-aspecting her Moon, Mars, Saturn, as well as Neptune conjoining the Asc.

So how can there not be major political change in these 2 countries, that reflects the anti-globalisation mood, and the EU’s part in bringing it about? The major symbol of these events, this new political mood, will be the fall of Angela Merkel in the autumn.

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She will be seen as a great leader, and as such her trajectory is in the stars: she was elected in 2005 as Pluto crossed the German Midheaven at 23 Sag, and continued as Pluto opposed the German Sun at 9 Cancer, and this year as Pluto finishes his business by squaring the German Moon. And so too will Merkel be finished as leader.

Mother Merkel (whose birthtime is approximate) has Sun at 24 Cancer, conjunct Uranus at 23 Cancer, showing the divided homeland she was born into, and which she experienced first-hand as a child when her family moved from West to East Germany. It is interesting with her Uranus that her job should be as a unifier, not just of Germany but of the EU. Her Sun-Uranus squares her Neptune-MC at 23-22 Libra. So this square, which is basic to her chart, has been under hard aspect from Uranus for a year or two (reflected in her waning popularity, much of it brought about by the immigrant surge which she, the caring Cancerian, oversaw.) Pluto will be approaching, rather than exactly aspecting her Sun-Moon, but that will be enough. She may, however, remain in politics for a few years after she loses the election, until the exact aspects have occurred.

The EU came into existence as the EEC in 1958. All the Angles were at 29 degrees of the mutable signs, which is the worst place to have them if you want something to last. The Euro currency has the same problem. Neptune won’t be exactly aspecting these points for another 7 years, but that is soon enough. In the case of the Euro, Neptune will exactly square the Moon (the member states) in 5 years.

So my prognosis is a dissolution of the EU in its current form, beginning with the start of the dissolution of the Euro over the next 2 or 3 years. And Brexit of 2016, followed by the French and German elections of 2017, will be seen as the key events which began this process. The rise of nationalist sentiment across the EU may mean that what the UK wants and what Europe wants are much more closely allied – ie more border controls, and devolution of power from Brussels -  and that will radically change the negotiating picture.

This easier climate for negotiation is reflected in Saturn’s passage across the major points of the UK chart, which will be complete in autumn 2020, and all over bar the shouting a year before that, after 2 years of serious negotiations.